But it’s best not to look at the war impact in isolation. Just days before the first attack, the SCOTUS also dealt a blow to the budget by nixing the Trump tariffs. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that if Trump replaces the former border duties with a 10% blanket rate, the U.S would collect $74 billion less this year than under the previous regime. Add that $74 billion to the $65 billion in spending, and the budget hammering almost doubles to $139 billion, raising the CBO-projected deficit by 7.5%. Keep in mind that tariff losses aren’t mainly a one-time hit like the war spending. If permanent, the loss of a large part of the Trump import duties would represent a year-after-year, recurring, structural increase in deficits.
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